Taking my thoughts from Stratfor and Sublime Oblivion
Anatoly did a good job of summarizing the issues. Israel will not accept a nuclear Iran (it has said as much). The two options for dealing with Iran (sending the nuclear stuff to Turkey or Russia and sanctions) will not actually stop Iran’s ability for nuclear weapons. It will just slow it down. And while I think Iran has been fairly honest about it’s nuclear intentions, there is always the possibility it has a secret nuclear cave somewhere in the mountains. Unlikely, yes, but still…
Given all that, Israel (or Israel-US) will probably strike Iran. You can imagine the fallout. The West will be completely discredited in the Middle East. But that doesn’t really mean anything significant. But what it could do is set the stage for Turkey to unite the Arab lands (I realize the Turkish people aren’t Arabic) around itself.
Of course, there are other factors to consider that complicate this scenario:
- There is the issue between Azeribaijan and Armenia, with Russia keeping both hostiles in line.
- What effects would the fallout from an Israeli-US airstrike do to an already doomed economy?