Stratfor on the Coming Russo-German Alliance

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100524_germany_after_eu_russian_scenario?utm_source=GWeekly&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=100525&utm_content=readmore&elq=d31bd11f1e9a4a9bb001b48a80c8f575

They summarize their main argument,

Therefore, if we simply focus on economics, and we assume that the European Union cannot survive as an integrated system (a logical but not yet proven outcome), and we further assume that Germany is both the leading power of Europe and incapable of operating outside of a coalition, then we would argue that a German coalition with Russia is the most logical outcome of an EU decline.

I imagine Germany is tired of “footing the bill” in Europe for the past 60 years. And I don’t see Greece as the main problem. Sure, bailing out Zorba lifestyles doesn’t seem fair, but if you are going to have an integrated market where one action affects all actions, then you have to deal with this. Likewise, if Germany bails out Greece then in large part Greece loses its sovereignty. I’m entertaining the idea that in the day of global credit and moves toward a global market, national sovereignty is defined more by economics than borders (though borders are important).

In any case, I suspect Germany knows that bailing out Greece won’t solve anything, since even worse problems are going to happen in Spain, Ireland, and Portugal.

Germany could look east, then. As Stratfor suggests, Russia has most of the world’s energy supply, but it needs happy buyers and markets. Germany has this. Germany needs a stable labor supply that isn’t in the form of 3rd World Immigration. Russia could alleviate this.

Economic questions, since they now determine national sovereignty, are also military questions. While Germany has strong NATO connections, Germany realizes that NATO is functionally synonymous with “America’s overseas military colonies in Europe.”

Germany likely wants to assert its national identity, but realizes it cannot do this alone. Germany’s strength is Germany’s weakness: German power makes others nervous. But to alleviate the fears of WW2 armchair historians, this isn’t the days of Molotov and Ribbentrop. Stalin and Hitler aren’t carving up Europe in 2012.

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4 comments on “Stratfor on the Coming Russo-German Alliance

  1. Drew says:

    This is an interesting theory. The idea of the East providing resources and security (Lebensraum) didn’t originate with the Nazis. So now, you think a similar idea will be realized, only this time through economic partnership rather than conquest? Very intriguing. I wonder what the implications would be for America in that scenario.

  2. Paradoxicon says:

    This is an interesting theory. The idea of the East providing resources and security (Lebensraum) didn't originate with the Nazis. So now, you think a similar idea will be realized, only this time through economic partnership rather than conquest? Very intriguing. I wonder what the implications would be for America in that scenario.

  3. Granted,much of it is speculation, though I suspect a few things will unfold along these lines:1. Germany has always been potentially very powerful, whether militarily or economically. The EU the way it currently is is weak and fractured. I suppose Germany does’nt want to be pulled down with it.2. Germany needs Russian oil and gas. Russia needs reliable markets. It’s more complex than that, but that’s the general idea.3. What does it mean for America? NATO’s days of turning most of Europe and central Asia into military colonies, probably for the sole purpose of crippling Russia, are severely curtailed. NATO membership, while having benefits, is very expensive (up to date weaponry et al), which most European countries can’t afford on the grand scale that the Imperial Liberalism demands. 3a. With a crippled European economy, NATO’s military colonies in Europe simply can’t keep up the pace. Now, I don’t see Europe ditching NATO en toto. NATO’s probably here to stay. 3b. While hoping/assuming American leadership decides to use its head and not try to piss off every major country/rival in the world is usually a lost cause, that’s the biggest implication I see for America. The days of a unipolar world (e.g., 1990s) are over. 3c. I don’t see Germany of Russia taking over Europe or America by force.

  4. Granted,much of it is speculation, though I suspect a few things will unfold along these lines:1. Germany has always been potentially very powerful, whether militarily or economically. The EU the way it currently is is weak and fractured. I suppose Germany does'nt want to be pulled down with it.2. Germany needs Russian oil and gas. Russia needs reliable markets. It's more complex than that, but that's the general idea.3. What does it mean for America? NATO's days of turning most of Europe and central Asia into military colonies, probably for the sole purpose of crippling Russia, are severely curtailed. NATO membership, while having benefits, is very expensive (up to date weaponry et al), which most European countries can't afford on the grand scale that the Imperial Liberalism demands. 3a. With a crippled European economy, NATO's military colonies in Europe simply can't keep up the pace. Now, I don't see Europe ditching NATO en toto. NATO's probably here to stay. 3b. While hoping/assuming American leadership decides to use its head and not try to piss off every major country/rival in the world is usually a lost cause, that's the biggest implication I see for America. The days of a unipolar world (e.g., 1990s) are over. 3c. I don't see Germany of Russia taking over Europe or America by force.

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